Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
