A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
